5. (20 points) A five-year fixed-rate loan of $100 million (100m) carries a 7 percent annual interest rate. The borrower is rated BB. Based on hypothetical historical data, the probability distribution given below has been determined for various ratings upgrades, downgrades, status quo, and default possibilities over the next year. Information of one year forward yield curve of various maturities used in BBB bonds is also provided. Forward Rate Spreads at Time t Rating Distribution Coupon $ t R% AAA 0.01% 114.82m 1 3.72% AA 0.31% 114.60m 2 4.36% A 1.45% 114.03m 3 4.91% BBB 6.05% 4 5.30% BB 85.48% 108.55m B 5.60% 98.43m CCC 0.90% 86.82m Default 0.20% 54.12m a. (4 points) What is the present value of the loan at the end of the one-year risk horizon for the case where the borrower has been upgraded from BB to BBB? b. (8 points) Calculate the 5 percent and 1 percent VARs for this loan assuming a normal distribution of values. c. (8 points) Estimate the "approximate" 5 percent and 1 percent VARs using the actual distribution of loan values and probabilities