5-) Assume that, the data given in Exhibit 3 represents the most recent data over past 17 years. What would you guess for the market return would be for 2020? In other words, make a guess for the year 2020 using the data given in Exhibit 3.
07 x fx v C A 1 Exhibit 3 B D E Annual Stock Market Returns for 14 Countries F G H I J K L M Date Belgium Market Capitalizati Bond Return Bond Return Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return on 3.77 21.90 13.56 8.27 10.54 10 9.46 Australia Market Stock Capitalizati Return on -16.37 39,737 -14.42 28,309 68.08 41,810 -7.20 34,093 45.42 39,727 50.78 58,022 4.86 63,975 24.28 93,581 19.82 100,359 -14.87 78,567 35.99 107,866 -4.46 96,824 40.96 137,181 -7.65 143,349 21.19 169,490 12.36 200,745 13.10 193, 164 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Austria Stock Market Capitalizati Return on -15.79 1,009 -1.88 889 14.92 862 7.90 801 103.14 2,023 12.05 3,024 -16.28 3,946 8.34 4,983 82.61 10,184 -1.51 10,687 -13.07 11,710 -9.63 9,689 43.89 12,909 -9.73 13,125 -12.69 17,459 18.04 20,516 15.95 22,040 -3.30 31.20 9.51 12.15 6.57 25.47 18.91 14.58 14.67 21.24 37.98 16.62 33.23 -21.50 18.96 17.68 19.51 10.48 24.32 42.82 22.89 42.72 43.65 -13.42 52.03 13.54 -20.81 12 13 France Market Stock Return Capitalizati on -12.38 26,447 8.79 22,970 62.29 29, 170 20.12 29,529 48.59 53,943 53.38 100,302 -26.77 103,591 56.81 150,582 33.17 217,189 -22.74 195,888 21.15 243,055 5.94 234,464 30.04 312,041 -14.36 330,407 3.64 371,700 30.88 441,339 31.01 514, 162 7,456 7,893 8,885 9,268 15,345 26,864 29,366 41,542 50,371 44,284 52,652 49,200 60,366 64,811 80,301 90,456 106,879 9.19 9.29 -1.96 3.08 9.21 15.29 20.63 -5.24 20.73 12.30 4.78 6.27 21.62 17.84 14.61 24.47 22.16 5.30 8.80 -3.16 8.20 15.06 17.54 17.96 -5.06 23.07 12.11 9.891 4.59 24.21 23.59 21.32 22.36 21.98 3.14 20.30 4.80 6.05 18.10 12.07 26.69 -6.17 18.25 14.69 8.97 17.33 17 18 19 20 3.15 37.58 -5.18 19.64 20.48 33.37 22 23 Date Germany Market Capitalizati Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return 24 on 25 26 29 30 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 3.27 19.42 40.75 11.06 79.47 7.23 -38.47 31.09 37.46 -18.36 8.13 -4.29 45.85 -7.93 7.58 27.95 40.01 57,569 61,691 73,880 69,496 155,940 211,692 162,908 200,860 282,378 260,676 266,741 238,333 326,772 339,363 400,968 495,237 606,704 4.11 23.10 7.09 18.14 11.69 11.89 3.10 2.98 -2.93 -2.06 12.39 16.31 19.53 -6.14 21.97 6.98 4.78 Ireland Market Stock Capitalizati Return on -4.26 1,316 -5.61 995 76.75 1,404 -0.91 1,147 66.23 2,286 54.20 4,350 -11.41 4,963 43.60 7,340 37.16 9,785 -26.33 8,162 17.78 10,337 -9.58 8,528 61.34 12,228 5.35 14,756 25.29 19,237 25.93 25,440 45.30 33,347 5.11 38.04 16.71 12.36 34.31 5.42 28.15 25.57 3.15 7.00 14.96 5.81 30.91 -10.87 20.36 13.601 16.691 4.62 -10.55 22.92 30.84 108.42 73.73 -32.59 26.41 15.29 -27.72 2.22 -5.59 49.20 7.41 -1.19 10.98 64.80 Italy Market Capitalizati on 23,528 18,073 17,915 19,532 45,693 106,518 85,250 96,192 114,032 89,919 103,415 77.353 102,478 133,167 139,736 170,052 252,960 -3.10 27.56 36.26 44.70 18.67 50.21 -3.98 14.52 -1.24 8.41 26.60 1.68 56.52 -13.11 17.69 49.12 25.69 Japan Market Stock Capitalizati Return on 21.90 358,043 5.72 439,744 26.49 509,844 29.18 509,844 14.16 725,436 56.86 1,455, 105 8.13 2,137,715 38.09 2,964,727 20.47 3,150,654 -38.94 2,027,842 0.85 2,358,345 -21.42 1,826,976 13.59 2,270,842 7.08 2,747,311 0.35 2,846,585 -6.98 2,386,941 - 16.06 1,812, 145 18.49 10.83 9.47 10.48 10.59 14.17 7.84 5.36 -3.83 -0.09 15.20 12.66 17.13 -3.49 15.48 3.75 3.85 34 35 37 38 39 40 Date Switzerland Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Netherland Market Stock Bond Capitalizati Return Return on 1.31 19,952 5.76 24.85 21,604 29.26 56.95 28, 191 7.93 28.91 29,677 15.85 32.58 48,023 15.20 8.10 65,100 11.77 -18.70 66,162 4.26 31.20 75,787 5.22 26.89 106,486 -2.03 -13.25 101,225 -0.97 17.23 112,860 11.32 9.00 110,892 19.02 46.31 159, 107 16.98 1.95 181,095 -6.18 20.89 231,344 17.20 35.34 290,811 9.09 46.43 363,562 11.21 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 New Zealand Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on 10.05 4,118 14.58 -19.02 2,931 11.43 95.93 5,066 27.01 -0.57 3,508 -20.39 46.88 5,083 18.10 104.09 9,702 22.95 -35.61 7,396 20.88 -2.64 9,120 20.43 20.65 10,139 21.78 -34.78 6,516 12.28 26.42 11,550 40.53 0.19 10,591 15.66 55.63 17,072 20.88 -3.75 18,908 -12.72 15.64 22,404 19.53 11.1924,446 11.12 6.89 19,631 6.79 South Africa Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on -0.32 29,105 3.99 50.82 36,353 28.94 16.23 43,604 -2.18 11.53 27,711 2.08 38.72 20,221 7.90 59.67 27,349 35.09 -3.90 39,421 15.35 7.97 33,229 8.18 62.56 56,242 23.88 -7.12 53,254 18.85 30.49 96,672 12.77 -7.05 58,864 26.63 66.13 104,746 31.24 23.27 130,245 -11.15 4.69 139,970 30.70 8.15 117,848 4.88 -11.09 95,414 27.88 52 -9.94 12.70 26.15 1.56 58.91 10.95 -34.49 11.60 27.19 -20.82 20.91 24.60 48.05 -7.29 28.05 19.37 53.42 23,243 22,587 25,662 21,677 41.534 64,444 57,494 66,135 85,831 90.166 116,529 145,659 212,466 224,792 329,869 339,927 482,030 -0.14 13.72 3.07 1.99 6.25 7.43 6.48 1.07 -3.84 -0.20 8.14 14.02 15.70 -4.28 18.50 5.03 8.94 54 Date Bond Return 68 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 UK Stock Market Capitalizati Return on 12.83 184,752 28.52 191,266 25.97 210,607 30.18 211,340 22.84 302,349 26.29 403,071 7.90 562,787 10.08 567,570 37.39 665,860 -8.26 705,011 20.87 800,896 19.55 757,364 24.59 917,948 -6.95 903,719 26.36 1,097,924 15.79 1,392,185 24.75 #REF! 2.08 51.53 20.31 9.96 11.14 9.16 21.88 9.54 5.96 8.07 18.82 14.30 40.52 -9.98 18.07 9.42 22.98 US Market Stock Bond Capitalizati Return Return on -3.61 893,430 1.90 22.44 1,049,433 39.16 22.55 1,222, 131 -0.58 6.24 1,228,621 14.22 32.23 1,554,711 29.74 17.68 1,743,364 25.21 4.74 1,800,268 -3.45 17.84 1,956, 196 9.94 32.40 2,355,377 17.98 -3.49 2,186,563 29.16 2,900,656 18.17 5.90 3,074,287 8.07 10.29 3,332,434 16.94 1.56 3,296,047 -6.19 36.99 4,935,800 31.54 21.29 5,926, 178 1 -1.44 34.41 8,003,025 14.51 6.85 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 07 x fx v C A 1 Exhibit 3 B D E Annual Stock Market Returns for 14 Countries F G H I J K L M Date Belgium Market Capitalizati Bond Return Bond Return Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return on 3.77 21.90 13.56 8.27 10.54 10 9.46 Australia Market Stock Capitalizati Return on -16.37 39,737 -14.42 28,309 68.08 41,810 -7.20 34,093 45.42 39,727 50.78 58,022 4.86 63,975 24.28 93,581 19.82 100,359 -14.87 78,567 35.99 107,866 -4.46 96,824 40.96 137,181 -7.65 143,349 21.19 169,490 12.36 200,745 13.10 193, 164 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Austria Stock Market Capitalizati Return on -15.79 1,009 -1.88 889 14.92 862 7.90 801 103.14 2,023 12.05 3,024 -16.28 3,946 8.34 4,983 82.61 10,184 -1.51 10,687 -13.07 11,710 -9.63 9,689 43.89 12,909 -9.73 13,125 -12.69 17,459 18.04 20,516 15.95 22,040 -3.30 31.20 9.51 12.15 6.57 25.47 18.91 14.58 14.67 21.24 37.98 16.62 33.23 -21.50 18.96 17.68 19.51 10.48 24.32 42.82 22.89 42.72 43.65 -13.42 52.03 13.54 -20.81 12 13 France Market Stock Return Capitalizati on -12.38 26,447 8.79 22,970 62.29 29, 170 20.12 29,529 48.59 53,943 53.38 100,302 -26.77 103,591 56.81 150,582 33.17 217,189 -22.74 195,888 21.15 243,055 5.94 234,464 30.04 312,041 -14.36 330,407 3.64 371,700 30.88 441,339 31.01 514, 162 7,456 7,893 8,885 9,268 15,345 26,864 29,366 41,542 50,371 44,284 52,652 49,200 60,366 64,811 80,301 90,456 106,879 9.19 9.29 -1.96 3.08 9.21 15.29 20.63 -5.24 20.73 12.30 4.78 6.27 21.62 17.84 14.61 24.47 22.16 5.30 8.80 -3.16 8.20 15.06 17.54 17.96 -5.06 23.07 12.11 9.891 4.59 24.21 23.59 21.32 22.36 21.98 3.14 20.30 4.80 6.05 18.10 12.07 26.69 -6.17 18.25 14.69 8.97 17.33 17 18 19 20 3.15 37.58 -5.18 19.64 20.48 33.37 22 23 Date Germany Market Capitalizati Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return Stock Return Bond Return Bond Return 24 on 25 26 29 30 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 3.27 19.42 40.75 11.06 79.47 7.23 -38.47 31.09 37.46 -18.36 8.13 -4.29 45.85 -7.93 7.58 27.95 40.01 57,569 61,691 73,880 69,496 155,940 211,692 162,908 200,860 282,378 260,676 266,741 238,333 326,772 339,363 400,968 495,237 606,704 4.11 23.10 7.09 18.14 11.69 11.89 3.10 2.98 -2.93 -2.06 12.39 16.31 19.53 -6.14 21.97 6.98 4.78 Ireland Market Stock Capitalizati Return on -4.26 1,316 -5.61 995 76.75 1,404 -0.91 1,147 66.23 2,286 54.20 4,350 -11.41 4,963 43.60 7,340 37.16 9,785 -26.33 8,162 17.78 10,337 -9.58 8,528 61.34 12,228 5.35 14,756 25.29 19,237 25.93 25,440 45.30 33,347 5.11 38.04 16.71 12.36 34.31 5.42 28.15 25.57 3.15 7.00 14.96 5.81 30.91 -10.87 20.36 13.601 16.691 4.62 -10.55 22.92 30.84 108.42 73.73 -32.59 26.41 15.29 -27.72 2.22 -5.59 49.20 7.41 -1.19 10.98 64.80 Italy Market Capitalizati on 23,528 18,073 17,915 19,532 45,693 106,518 85,250 96,192 114,032 89,919 103,415 77.353 102,478 133,167 139,736 170,052 252,960 -3.10 27.56 36.26 44.70 18.67 50.21 -3.98 14.52 -1.24 8.41 26.60 1.68 56.52 -13.11 17.69 49.12 25.69 Japan Market Stock Capitalizati Return on 21.90 358,043 5.72 439,744 26.49 509,844 29.18 509,844 14.16 725,436 56.86 1,455, 105 8.13 2,137,715 38.09 2,964,727 20.47 3,150,654 -38.94 2,027,842 0.85 2,358,345 -21.42 1,826,976 13.59 2,270,842 7.08 2,747,311 0.35 2,846,585 -6.98 2,386,941 - 16.06 1,812, 145 18.49 10.83 9.47 10.48 10.59 14.17 7.84 5.36 -3.83 -0.09 15.20 12.66 17.13 -3.49 15.48 3.75 3.85 34 35 37 38 39 40 Date Switzerland Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 Netherland Market Stock Bond Capitalizati Return Return on 1.31 19,952 5.76 24.85 21,604 29.26 56.95 28, 191 7.93 28.91 29,677 15.85 32.58 48,023 15.20 8.10 65,100 11.77 -18.70 66,162 4.26 31.20 75,787 5.22 26.89 106,486 -2.03 -13.25 101,225 -0.97 17.23 112,860 11.32 9.00 110,892 19.02 46.31 159, 107 16.98 1.95 181,095 -6.18 20.89 231,344 17.20 35.34 290,811 9.09 46.43 363,562 11.21 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 New Zealand Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on 10.05 4,118 14.58 -19.02 2,931 11.43 95.93 5,066 27.01 -0.57 3,508 -20.39 46.88 5,083 18.10 104.09 9,702 22.95 -35.61 7,396 20.88 -2.64 9,120 20.43 20.65 10,139 21.78 -34.78 6,516 12.28 26.42 11,550 40.53 0.19 10,591 15.66 55.63 17,072 20.88 -3.75 18,908 -12.72 15.64 22,404 19.53 11.1924,446 11.12 6.89 19,631 6.79 South Africa Market Stock Bond Return Capitalizati Return on -0.32 29,105 3.99 50.82 36,353 28.94 16.23 43,604 -2.18 11.53 27,711 2.08 38.72 20,221 7.90 59.67 27,349 35.09 -3.90 39,421 15.35 7.97 33,229 8.18 62.56 56,242 23.88 -7.12 53,254 18.85 30.49 96,672 12.77 -7.05 58,864 26.63 66.13 104,746 31.24 23.27 130,245 -11.15 4.69 139,970 30.70 8.15 117,848 4.88 -11.09 95,414 27.88 52 -9.94 12.70 26.15 1.56 58.91 10.95 -34.49 11.60 27.19 -20.82 20.91 24.60 48.05 -7.29 28.05 19.37 53.42 23,243 22,587 25,662 21,677 41.534 64,444 57,494 66,135 85,831 90.166 116,529 145,659 212,466 224,792 329,869 339,927 482,030 -0.14 13.72 3.07 1.99 6.25 7.43 6.48 1.07 -3.84 -0.20 8.14 14.02 15.70 -4.28 18.50 5.03 8.94 54 Date Bond Return 68 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 UK Stock Market Capitalizati Return on 12.83 184,752 28.52 191,266 25.97 210,607 30.18 211,340 22.84 302,349 26.29 403,071 7.90 562,787 10.08 567,570 37.39 665,860 -8.26 705,011 20.87 800,896 19.55 757,364 24.59 917,948 -6.95 903,719 26.36 1,097,924 15.79 1,392,185 24.75 #REF! 2.08 51.53 20.31 9.96 11.14 9.16 21.88 9.54 5.96 8.07 18.82 14.30 40.52 -9.98 18.07 9.42 22.98 US Market Stock Bond Capitalizati Return Return on -3.61 893,430 1.90 22.44 1,049,433 39.16 22.55 1,222, 131 -0.58 6.24 1,228,621 14.22 32.23 1,554,711 29.74 17.68 1,743,364 25.21 4.74 1,800,268 -3.45 17.84 1,956, 196 9.94 32.40 2,355,377 17.98 -3.49 2,186,563 29.16 2,900,656 18.17 5.90 3,074,287 8.07 10.29 3,332,434 16.94 1.56 3,296,047 -6.19 36.99 4,935,800 31.54 21.29 5,926, 178 1 -1.44 34.41 8,003,025 14.51 6.85 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82
