5. Considering your comparable companies and product lifecycles, what would you consider are reasonable high, and low growth estimates For 2008? For the long term? Compare these estimates to the growth estimates in Yeungs base model (Exhibit 6)
Exhibit Crocs, Inc. Valuation Summary (in millions of US dollars, except share and per-share data) Valuation of Crocs as of year end 2007 based on data available in August 2007. All calculations assume debt is negligible. Data for 2006 are from the Crucs annual report. Mexdel assumes a linear decay in growth rates from 2008 to steady state. a Cash Flow Forecast 2006 5355 154 Revenues Cast of sales Gross profit Selling general, and admin. Operating income 2007 SA30 342 488 251 2008 $1,370 589 781 425 356 2009 $2,058 885 1,173 659 514 Forecast Period 2010 2011 $2,788 $3,367 1,227 1,515 1,562 1,852 921 1,111 641 741 2012 $3,569 1.6416 1,963 1.178 785 201 105 95 237 NOPAT tax ar 30%) Ch NWC Ch NPPE Free cash flows 249 72 55 122 361 118 63 178 449 146 73 21 519 116 58 345 550 40 20 499 Growth COGS/Sales SGA/Sales NWC as of sales NF Assets as of sales Deprec, as % of NFAssets 227% 43.5% 29.7% 41.3% 16.4% 134% 41.2% 30.2% 26.6% 10.5% 24.1% 65.0PX 43% 31.00% 21.4% 10.4% 15.0% 50.3% 43.074 32.07% 20.02% 100.0% 15.09% Assumptions 35.5% 20.8% 44.0% 45. 33.02% 33.0 211.02% 21.0% 10.00% 100% 15.09% 15.01% 6.0% 45.0% 33.0% 20.0% 107 13.8% Networking capital Net fixed assets Depreciation/amatization EBITDA Net income (oss) 147 58 8 103 714 357 221 87 21 258 168 293 142 21 377 249 412 206 31 545 360 558 279 42 683 449 673 337 51 791 519 Discount Rate 10-year Treasury rate Market nisk premium Beta Discount rate 4.36% 5.50% 1.2 10.96% 9,868) 6,504 Valuation Terminal value (TV) Present value (PV) of TV PV planning Enterprise value (EV) Shares outstanding 650 Multiples Implied by Calculated Price 2007 2008 (trailing leading) Price Lanning 28.70 EV to EBITDA 27.74 18.95 EV to Sales 5.22 4209 7,154 85.00 R.62 Price per share $84.17 Data de Authentxenapt 2006 dats, which one from the Casual poet Exhibit Crocs, Inc. Valuation Summary (in millions of US dollars, except share and per-share data) Valuation of Crocs as of year end 2007 based on data available in August 2007. All calculations assume debt is negligible. Data for 2006 are from the Crucs annual report. Mexdel assumes a linear decay in growth rates from 2008 to steady state. a Cash Flow Forecast 2006 5355 154 Revenues Cast of sales Gross profit Selling general, and admin. Operating income 2007 SA30 342 488 251 2008 $1,370 589 781 425 356 2009 $2,058 885 1,173 659 514 Forecast Period 2010 2011 $2,788 $3,367 1,227 1,515 1,562 1,852 921 1,111 641 741 2012 $3,569 1.6416 1,963 1.178 785 201 105 95 237 NOPAT tax ar 30%) Ch NWC Ch NPPE Free cash flows 249 72 55 122 361 118 63 178 449 146 73 21 519 116 58 345 550 40 20 499 Growth COGS/Sales SGA/Sales NWC as of sales NF Assets as of sales Deprec, as % of NFAssets 227% 43.5% 29.7% 41.3% 16.4% 134% 41.2% 30.2% 26.6% 10.5% 24.1% 65.0PX 43% 31.00% 21.4% 10.4% 15.0% 50.3% 43.074 32.07% 20.02% 100.0% 15.09% Assumptions 35.5% 20.8% 44.0% 45. 33.02% 33.0 211.02% 21.0% 10.00% 100% 15.09% 15.01% 6.0% 45.0% 33.0% 20.0% 107 13.8% Networking capital Net fixed assets Depreciation/amatization EBITDA Net income (oss) 147 58 8 103 714 357 221 87 21 258 168 293 142 21 377 249 412 206 31 545 360 558 279 42 683 449 673 337 51 791 519 Discount Rate 10-year Treasury rate Market nisk premium Beta Discount rate 4.36% 5.50% 1.2 10.96% 9,868) 6,504 Valuation Terminal value (TV) Present value (PV) of TV PV planning Enterprise value (EV) Shares outstanding 650 Multiples Implied by Calculated Price 2007 2008 (trailing leading) Price Lanning 28.70 EV to EBITDA 27.74 18.95 EV to Sales 5.22 4209 7,154 85.00 R.62 Price per share $84.17 Data de Authentxenapt 2006 dats, which one from the Casual poet
