1. (50 pts.) Consider the monthly International Passenger totals (# of Pass. in 1000s) for an airline provided in the Excel file. Use Excel to perform following analysis.

a)Find the 3-month and 6-month moving averages for all data values and find forecast for August 2022. Find MAD for both forecasts and determine the best moving average forecast.

b)Find the three-month weighted moving average forecasts and find forecast for August 2022 if weights of 0.2, 0.3, and 0.5 are used with highest weights assigned to the latest quarters. Find MAD and compare with MADs in part (a).

c)Use the exponential moving average to find all forecasts and the forecast for August 2022 Assume forecast of 350 for January 2012 anda=0.8. Find MAD and compare to MAD values in parts (a and b.)

d)Construct a linear trend line graph of # of Passengers, find the best linear fitted line, equation, and R-squared. Discuss findings (time series components) based on graph, equation, and R².

e)Find monthly seasonal relatives (indices) and construct a column of de-seasonalized values for # of Passengers by dividing monthly number of passengers by respective seasonal monthly indices.

f)Construct a trend line graph of De-seas # of Passengers, find the best linear fitted line, equation, and R-squared. Discuss findings based on graph, equation, and R². Is this model better fit compared to model in part (d). Explain.

g)Use the model in part f to find forecasts for the remaining months of 2022 and then seasonalize your forecasts by multiplying forecasts by respective monthly seasonal relatives obtained in part (e).