• 5.30

Emergency calls to Winter Park, Florida's 911 system for the past 24 weeks are as follows:

WEEK	CALLS	WEEK	CALLS	WEEK	CALLS
1	50	9	35	17	55
2	35	10	20	18	40
3	25	11	15	19	35
4	40	12	40	20	60
5	45	13	55	21	75
6	35	14	35	22	50
7	20	15	25	23	40
8	30	16	55	24	65

1. Compute the exponentially smoothed forecast of calls for each week. Assume an initial forecast of 50 calls in the first week, and use=0.1.What is the forecast for week 25?
2. Reforecast each period using=0.6.
3. Actual calls during week 25 were 85. Which smoothing constant provides a superior forecast?