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6. It is estimated that the pattern of returns on an investment project is as follows: Year 1: Year 2: Return Probability Return Probability Return

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6. It is estimated that the pattern of returns on an investment project is as follows: Year 1: Year 2: Return Probability Return Probability Return Probability 5000 7000 9000 0.2 0.6 0.2 6000 7000 8000 0.4 0.3 3000 4000 5000 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Year 3: The returns of different years are independent. The initial investment on the project is fixed at 12000 and the appropriate discount rate is 5%. Find the following: (a) the expected NPV, (b) the variance of return in each of the years, (c) the standard deviation of NPV, (d) the coefficient of variation, Now suppose that you are not given the precise probability distribution of returns but are only given the expected NPV and standard deviation of NPV you calculated in (a) and (c). Find: (e) the probability that NPV is negative (state the assumption, if any, you have made in finding the probability), (f) the maximum tolerable value of the coefficient of variation such that the chance of making a loss is less than 15% (state the assumption, if any, you have made in finding the maximum tolerable value)

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