6. Sensitivity and scenario analysis Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which one of the elements (or variables) affecting a project's expected value is changed to study its effect on the expected value is called analysis. Tanya is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness of a new project that her company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph. Base Case NPV NPV (Millions of dollars) Base Case Cost of Capital B 9 12 15 COST OF CAPITAL (Percent) if the cost of This curve implies that the project is not very sensitive to changes in cost of capital. The project's NPV is likely to capital increases to 15%. Along with the sensitivity analysis, Tanya is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPV. Her report includes the following information about the scenario analysis: Data Collected Outcome NPV; Pessimistic -$5.62 million Most likely $7.94 million Optimistic $16.45 million Probability (P;) 0.35 0.30 0.35 Complete the missing information in Tanya's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by) million