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7.2.7. A disease strikes a small town of 10,000 individuals. Suppose 10 individuals are infected initially and that the transmission coefficient has been estimated to

7.2.7. A disease strikes a small town of 10,000 individuals. Suppose 10 individuals are infected initially and that the transmission coefficient has been estimated to be ? = .00008.

a. For each of the four possible epidemics plotted in Figure 7.4 picture below, estimate the relative removal rate ?, the removal rate ? , and the mean time of infectivity. Then calculate the basic reproduction number for each of the epidemics. Tabulate your answers.

b. Extend your table in part (a) by including the number of tme steps T until the epidemic peaks, and the number of susceptibles S? = lim t?? St remaining after the disease dies out. Explain the effect of increasing ? on the virulence of an epidemic. Does this make biological sense?

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