A 5% 3-month Value At Risk (VaR) of $1 million represents:

A 5% chance of the asset increasing in value by $1 million during the 3-month time frame.

The likelihood of a 5% of $1 million decline in the asset over the next 3-month.

A 5% chance of the asset declining in value by $1 million during the 3-month time frame.

A 5% decline in the value of the asset after 3 month, per each $1 million of notional.