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A bakery makes and sells fresh pies every day in a multiple of 50 units. The cost of making each pie is $2.50, and the
A bakery makes and sells fresh pies every day in a multiple of 50 units. The cost of making each pie is $2.50, and the pies are sold for $7.50 each. Unsold pies at the end of the day will be offered for a quick sale for $0.50 each, and they are always sold out. Based on past experience, the bakery estimates the daily demand for its pies as below.
Demand | 100 | 200 | 300 | 400 | 500 | 600 |
Probability | 10% | 15% | 25% | 30% | 15% | 5% |
Answer the following questions by showing the detailed calculations:
- Construct a table of expected profits or losses for each possible demand quantity to determine the optimal number of pies that the bakery should make every day. (3 marks)
- Confirm your answers in sub-question a) by showing the profit or loss of the closest quantity that the bakery can produce above and below the optimal number (1 mark)
- Confirm your answers in sub-question a) using a full marginal analysis based on the costs of overestimating and underestimating demands (2 marks)
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