A candy company claims that in a large bag (over 1,000 pieces) of

Halloween

candy half the candies are

orange

and half the candies are

black.

You pick candies at random from a bag and discover that of the first

50

you eat,

18

are

orange.

a)	If it were true that half are orange and half are black, what is the probability you would have found that at most 18 out of 50 were orange?
b)	Do you think that half of the candies in the bag are really orange? Explain.