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A cohort of 2000 men who were free of heart disease were recruited for a 5 year study. In the 1st year, 15 of the
A cohort of 2000 men who were free of heart disease were recruited for a 5 year study. In the 1st year, 15 of the men were newly diagnosed with heart disease. In the and, 3id, 4th and 5th years, the number newly diagnosed with heart disease was 30, 20, 35 and 50 respectively.. Time Number of Number Conditional Conditional Cumulative (yrs) Individuals of events probability of probability probability at risk event of survival of survival 0 2000 0-1 2000 15 0075 .9925 .9925 1-2 1985 30 0151 9849 .9775 2-3 1955 20 .0201 3-4 1935 35 0181 9819 9500 4-5 1900 50 0263 .9737 .9250 5 1850 1 Select the correct interpretation for the conditional probability of survival you calculated above: O The conditional probability of survival suggests that 98.90%% of the initial cohort is still alive by the end of the 3rd year. O The conditional probability of survival suggests that 96.75%% of the cohort is still alive by the end of the 3rd year. O The conditional probability of survival suggests that 98.98%% of the cohort that survived to the third year is still alive by the end of that year. O The conditional probability of survival suggests that 96.75% of the cohort that survived to the third year is still alive by the end of that year. What can you conclude given the cumulative survival calculated 2. above? 0 96.75% of the cohort survived by the end of the study period. O 3.25% of all individuals observed in the study are not alive by the end of year O 92.50%% of all individuals observed in the study survived by the end of year 3. O 1.81% of the cohort that survived to the third year died by the end of the 3rd year. 3. Select all the following true statements, using the answers you calculated above as reference: O A. The median survival time for this study using the Kaplan-Meier curve can be determined to be between time 233 and 239 B. The conditional probability of death at time 233 allows us to conclude that 69.23% of the entire cohort is still alive at that time. C. The conditional probability of death at time 233 allows us to conclude that there is a 69.23% of survival among those at risk during time 233. D. The cumulative probability of survival for time 344 suggests that 4.81% of the entire cohort is alive at time 344
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