Question
A Company decided to start a new drug . The total R&D are $750000000 with clinical trials mounting to $120000,000. The current market size is
A Company decided to start a new drug . The total R&D are $750000000 with clinical trials mounting to $120000,000. The current market size is 2000,000 and expected to grow 3% every year . the company hope the first year is 8% and grow by 20% each year for next 4 years . a monthly prescription is to make revenue of $350 while incurring variable costs of $150. Discount rate of 9% is assumed . Please solve this in excel .
What is net present value over the first four years ?
By which year the company can expect to realize a positive cumulative profit ? what is the cumulative profit of this year ?
Conduct appropriate what -if analyses to investigate how the cumulative profit for the next four years and the net present value change if unit price varices between $250 and $450 with increment of $20 ( the table below is to show the format of the solution , using EXCEL )
Unit Price | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | NPV |
250 |
|
|
|
|
|
270 |
|
|
|
|
|
290 |
|
|
|
|
|
310 |
|
|
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|
330 |
|
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350 |
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|
|
370 |
|
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|
|
390 |
|
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|
410 |
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|
|
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|
430 |
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|
450 |
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|
Conduct appropriate what -if analyses to investigate the joint effect of unit cost and market share growth rate on net present value .( for consistency , let unit cost vary between $100 and $200 with increment of $10, and let market share growth rate vary between 10% and 30%, and increment of 2% . ( answers in excel )
Market share growth rate |
| |||||||||||
Unit cost |
| 0.1 | 0.12 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 0.18 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.28 | 0.3 |
100 |
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110 |
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120 |
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130 |
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140 |
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150 |
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160 |
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170 |
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180 |
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190 |
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| 200 |
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5 . use a tornado chart to identify the most important 3 variables that affect the NPV .
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