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A company is trying to predict the long-run market share of a new men's deodorant. Based on initial marketing studies, the company believes that 35%
A company is trying to predict the long-run market share of a new men's deodorant. Based on initial marketing studies, the company believes that 35% of new purchasers in this market will ultimately try this brand, and of these, about 55% will purchase it in the future. Preliminary data also suggest that the brand will attract heavier-than-average buyers, such as those who exercise frequently and participate in sports, and that they will purchase about 25% more than the average buyer. Suppose that the estimate of the percentage of new purchasers who will ultimately try the brand is uncertain and assumed to be normally distributed with a mean of 35% and a standard deviation of 5%. Conduct a Monte Carlo simulation with 50 trials and compute summary statistics of the long-run market share. Click the icon to view a sample of 50 simulation trial results. Let T be the proportion of customers trying the brand, let R be the proportion of customers who repurchase, and let B be the buyer index, which is 1.0 for the average. Then the long run market share in terms of T, R, and B is . For the Monte Carlo simulation, the value of is randomly generated using the Excel formula =NORM.INV(RAND(), ], ). The values of the other two variables, in alphabetical order, are | and. ; or decimals. Do not round.) B - X Simulation Results T R 21.69% 27.27% 23.60% 18.20% 27.53% 28.42% 30.61% 21.50% 21.59% 24.34% 22.14% 24.07% 19.77% 22.96% 26.27% 23.51% 23.37% 24.76% 24.03% 21.01% 27.27% 27.23% 24.44% 27.87% 26.18% 24.74% 17.90% 28.79% 21.61% 28.16% 23.40% 21.34% 18.75% 27.38% 29.89% 31.83% 24.26% 19.04% 22.96% 24.42% 18.80% 25.00% 28.17% 20.02% 16.68% 26.38% 24.11% 26.36% 23.37% 14.59%
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