Question
a) Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA b) Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data c)
a) Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on a CMA b) Deseasonalize the data and develop a trend line on the deseasonalized data c) Use the trend line to forecast the sales for each quarter of year 4. d) Use the seasonal indices to adjust the forecasts found in part c. e) Run regression using deseasonalized sales and time to get trend to obtain the final forecasts for periods, 13, 14, 15, 16 Dante Manufacturing | |||||||||
| Trend and Seasonality | |||||||||
| Seasonal | Trend | Quarterly | |||||||
| Year | Quarter | t | Sales | 4Q MA | CMA | Ratio | Deasonalized Sales | Forecast | Forecast |
| 1 | 1 | 210.00 | |||||||
| 2 | 235.00 | ||||||||
| 3 | 240.00 | ||||||||
| 4 | 201.00 | ||||||||
| 2 | 1 | 220.00 | |||||||
| 2 | 220.00 | ||||||||
| 3 | 254.00 | ||||||||
| 4 | 209.00 | ||||||||
| 3 | 1 | 205.00 | |||||||
| 2 | 226.00 | ||||||||
| 3 | 261.00 | ||||||||
| 4 | 210.00 | ||||||||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||||
| 2 | |||||||||
| 3 | |||||||||
| 4 | |||||||||
| Seasonal Indexes | |||||||||
| Quarter | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |||||
| Average | |||||||||
| Forecast Projection for year 4 | |||||||||
| Trend Model: | T = | ||||||||
| Year | Quarter | t | Trend Forecast | Seasonal Index | Quarterly Forecast | ||||
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Business Statistics
Authors: Norean Sharpe, Richard Veaux, Paul Velleman
3rd Edition
978-0321944726, 321925831, 9780321944696, 321944720, 321944690, 978-0321925831
