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a) Consider stocks A and B whose annualised rate of return following normal distribution having the following characteristics: Stock Expected Value Standard Deviation A 5%

a) Consider stocks A and B whose annualised rate of return following normal distribution having the following characteristics:

Stock

Expected Value

Standard Deviation

A

5%

12%

B

8%

15%

The market risk free rate is 2%. Coefficient of correlation ( ) between the two stocks is 0.3.

i) What is the daily 99% VaR of a 10 million investment in the optimal portfolio consist of A and B? Given the 99% normal percentile is 2.33. Assume there are 252 trading days in a year.

ii) What is the 10-day 99% Expected Shortfall of the above portfolio?

b) The following shows the historical return series of Stock C.

Day

Daily Return of Stock C

Day

Daily Return of Stock C

1

12.0%

16

9.0%

2

12.0%

17

16.0%

3

-10.0%

18

1.0%

4

0.5%

19

7.0%

5

2.0%

20

19.0%

6

4.0%

21

4.0%

7

0.0%

22

14.0%

8

5.0%

23

11.0%

9

9.0%

24

6.0%

10

28.0%

25

11.0%

11

-50.0%

26

1.0%

12

10.0%

27

2.0%

13

6.0%

28

2.0%

14

4.5%

29

6.5%

15

1.0%

30

3.2%

i) What is the 90% daily Value-at-Risk of an $1million investment in stock C?

ii) What is the 90% daily Expected Shortfall of an $1million investment in stock C?

iii) Using the results in part ii) and iii), explain why expected shortfall is more desirable than value-at-risk when used in regulatory requirement.

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