Question
a) Consider stocks A and B whose annualised rate of return following normal distribution having the following characteristics: Stock Expected Value Standard Deviation A 5%
a) Consider stocks A and B whose annualised rate of return following normal distribution having the following characteristics:
Stock | Expected Value | Standard Deviation |
A | 5% | 12% |
B | 8% | 15% |
The market risk free rate is 2%. Coefficient of correlation ( ) between the two stocks is 0.3.
i) What is the daily 99% VaR of a 10 million investment in the optimal portfolio consist of A and B? Given the 99% normal percentile is 2.33. Assume there are 252 trading days in a year.
ii) What is the 10-day 99% Expected Shortfall of the above portfolio?
b) The following shows the historical return series of Stock C.
Day | Daily Return of Stock C |
| Day | Daily Return of Stock C |
1 | 12.0% |
| 16 | 9.0% |
2 | 12.0% |
| 17 | 16.0% |
3 | -10.0% |
| 18 | 1.0% |
4 | 0.5% |
| 19 | 7.0% |
5 | 2.0% |
| 20 | 19.0% |
6 | 4.0% |
| 21 | 4.0% |
7 | 0.0% |
| 22 | 14.0% |
8 | 5.0% |
| 23 | 11.0% |
9 | 9.0% |
| 24 | 6.0% |
10 | 28.0% |
| 25 | 11.0% |
11 | -50.0% |
| 26 | 1.0% |
12 | 10.0% |
| 27 | 2.0% |
13 | 6.0% |
| 28 | 2.0% |
14 | 4.5% |
| 29 | 6.5% |
15 | 1.0% |
| 30 | 3.2% |
i) What is the 90% daily Value-at-Risk of an $1million investment in stock C?
ii) What is the 90% daily Expected Shortfall of an $1million investment in stock C?
iii) Using the results in part ii) and iii), explain why expected shortfall is more desirable than value-at-risk when used in regulatory requirement.
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