a Content x + O ( 9 C' a learn.humber.ca/ultra/courses/_186175_1/ci/outline i} G *- Quantitative Methods - BSTA-320-D8A Tests and Quizzes Quiz 4 - Posterior Probabilities \\s/ Kipling can pay for a market survey research to better assess future market conditions. The forecast of the survey will either be encouraging or discouraging. Past records show that, given high competition, the probability of an encouraging forecast was 0.60. However, given low competition, the probability of a discouraging forecast was 0.80. Calculate posterior probabilities (to 3 decimal places) and use them to answer the following questions. Do not round intermediate probability calculations. a) If Kipling receives an encouraging forecast from the market survey, what is the probability that they will face high competition? [3 b) Given Kipling receives a discouraging forecast from the market survey, what is the probability that they will face high competition? C] c) If the market survey report is encouraging, what is the expected value of the optimal d) If the market survey report is discouraging, what is the expected value of the optimal decision? $ a Content x + o ( 9 C' a learn.humber.ca/ultra/courses/_186175_1/c|/outline i} G B *- Quantitative Methods - BSTA-320-DSA Tests and Quizzes Quiz 4 - Posterior Probabilities optimal decision? $ C] e) What is the expected value with the sample information (EVwSI) by the market f) What is the expected value of the sample information (EVSI) provided by the market 9) If the market survey costs $4,600, what is the best course of action for Kipling? Don't use market survey; cost is greater than EVSI v '/ I h) What is the efficiency of the sample information? Round % to 1 decimal place. 3% Check