A convenience store recently started to carry a new brand of soft drink. Management is interested in estimating future sales volume to determine whether it should continue to carry the new brand or replace it with another brand. The following table provides the number of cans sold per week. Use both the trend projection with regression and the exponential smoothing (let demand=0.4 with an initial forecast for week 1 of ) methods to forecast demand for week . Compare these methods by using the mean absolute deviation and mean absolute percent error performance criteria. Does your analysis suggest that sales are trending and if so, by how much?

(i) Obtain the trend projection with regression forecast.

The forecast for week 13 is_____?? enter your response here. (Enter your response rounded to the nearest whole number.)

Note that The forecast errors Et are determined by subtracting the forecasted values from the actual, Et=DtFt.

Find the mean absolute deviation (MAD)

Find the mean absolute deviation (MAPE)

(ii) obtain the exponential smoothing forecast.

Note that The forecast errors Et are determined by subtracting the forecasted values from the actual, Et=DtFt.

Find the mean absolute deviation (MAD

Find the mean absolute percent error (MAPE).

\begin{tabular}{lcccccccccccc} \hline Period & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 & 8 & 9 & 10 & 11 & 12 \\ \hline Sales & 639 & 609 & 645 & 736 & 665 & 609 & 735 & 699 & 706 & 744 & 671 & 746 \\ \hline \end{tabular}