Question
A corporate raider contemplates the future of a recent acquisition. Three alternatives are being considered in two states of nature. The payoff table with prior
A corporate raider contemplates the future of a recent acquisition. Three alternatives are being considered in two states of nature. The payoff table with prior probabilities is given below.
Given, EVwoPI = $865
Suppose a Survey can be run to test the foreign competitive condition. In past uses, this survey has been shown to predict Good Foreign Competitive condition in 70 % cases when there was a really a Good Foreign Competitive condition and, They predicted Poor Foreign Competitive condition in 80 % cases when there was a really a Poor Foreign Competitive condition.
Let us define the following: g = good foreign competitive conditions p = poor foreign competitive conditions X1 = Survey predicts good foreign competitive condition X2 = Survey predicts poor foreign competitive condition
Use this information to complete and write the final value the following in each blank (rounded to THREE Decimal places):
NOTE: Write only the values, do not put $ and comma symbol
All posterior probabilities:
Blank 1: P(gIX1) = _____
Blank 2: P(pIX1) = _____
Blank 3: P(gIX2) = _____
Blank 4: P(pIX2) = _____
Then, calculate and write down the final value (rounded to THREE decimal places) of EVwSI.
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