Question
A country ASDF likes to fight wars (sometimes) and smooth consumption. It has a GDPof $1 trillion ($1000 billion) every year. It is year 0
A country ASDF likes to fight wars (sometimes) and smooth consumption. It has a GDPof $1 trillion ($1000 billion) every year. It is year 0 and ASDF has zero external wealth W = 0 initially (inherited fromyear-1). The world real interest rate is 5%.
If there is no war (peacetime) country ASDF consumes all GDP, and never invests, with C = GNE = GDP in all future years, and I = G = 0. However, country ASDF starts a war in year 0. Fighting a war costs G = $84 billion per year.
The Long Run Budget Constraint (LRBC) must hold. Assume there are no capital gains or capital transfers, KG = KA = 0, so the change in W each period is exactly equal to CA.
- Let us assume that, at first, the people in country ASDF think the war will last only 1 year. Under that assumption, how much will they borrow in year 0 to finance the war? How much do they cut their consumption?
- Treat the events in year 0 as given above in part a. Now in year 1, country ASDF find they can not exit the war, and they now update their beliefs and think the war will last 1 more year. How much extra should they borrow at this point? How much more do they cut consumption?
- The same thing happens in years 2, 3, and 4. How much more do they borrow and how do they cut their consumption each time?
- Now suppose country ASDF had known the war would last 5 years (year 0 -> year 4) from the very beginning in year 0. Would they have chosen this consumption path? why or why not?
- It turns out that the rest of the world will not lend unlimited amounts to country ASDF. IN FACT the debt limit for country ASDF is 80% of their GDP or $800 billion. How long a war can country ASDF afford to fight using external finance to smooth consumption when it proceeds as above (in parts a/b/c), extending the war one year at a time?
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