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A financial company has a sum of one million francs for a year. It can place this money on the Swiss market or on the

A financial company has a sum of one million francs for a year. It can place this money on the Swiss market or on the American market. In either case, it is considering a deposit in a term account or buying shares. In Switzerland, the interest on a term account is 5% and the return on equities can be 2%, 4% or 6%. The respective probabilities are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2. In the United States, the interest on a term account is 10% and the return on stocks can be 6%, 12% or 15%. The respective probabilities are 0.6, 0.25 and 0.15. In the case of an investment in the American market, it is also necessary to take into account the evolution of the exchange rate. The company estimates that the probability that the exchange rate increases by 10% is 0.3; that the probability of a stable price is 0.4 and the probability of a 20% decline in the exchange rate is 0.3. The current exchange rate (Swiss francs to 1 dollar) is 2.50 Fr. What decision must she take if she wants to maximize the expected profit?

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