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A firm is considering a capital budget project with uncertain cash flows. The project leader has narrowed the possible outcomes to TWO scenarios: GOOD and

A firm is considering a capital budget project with uncertain cash flows. The project leader has narrowed the possible outcomes to TWO scenarios: GOOD and BAD. The project is assumed to run forever. Below, the table shows the scenarios with associated cash flows. If the project is bad, the firm believes that cash flows will grow at 1% annually forever. If the project is good, the firm believes that the cash flows will grow at 4% annually forever. The cost of capital facing the firm is 12%. What is the expected NPV of the project?

SCENARIO: PROBABILITY: INITIAL CASH FLOW YEAR ONE CASH FLOW
BAD 0.45 ($1,000) $50
GOOD 0.55 ($1,000) $110

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