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A firm is considering two different projects, A and B. The CEO asked the firm's analysts to conduct a scenario analysis considering the best
A firm is considering two different projects, A and B. The CEO asked the firm's analysts to conduct a scenario analysis considering the best and worst future economic situations. Based on the analysis, there is a 25% chance for the best economic situation, a 25% chance for the worst economic situation in the next four years, and a 50% chance that the economic situation remains the same. For the scenario analysis, they consider a 20% increase in cash flows (excluding costs) for the best case and a 20% decrease in cash flows (excluding costs) for the worst case. The analysts have provided the following estimations for the base case, and your job is to find which project is riskier. Calculate the coefficient of variation for the NPV of each project and compare them. WACC: Year 10.00% 0 1 2 3 cash flow. -$850 $400 $420 $440 $460 cash flow. -$600 $335 $350 $350 $360 Case Probability Worst 0.25 Base 0.50 Best 0.25
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