Question
A friend is working as a data analyst for a politician, and is tasked with determining if voters in a specific county plan to vote
A friend is working as a data analyst for a politician, and is tasked with determining if voters in a specific county plan to vote for the candidate (Specifically if the proportion of voters who intend to vote for the candidate is more than half). Your friend is sadly a mathematician, not a statistician, so they spend some time on google and determine that they need to collect a sample and conduct a hypothesis test. They have no problem with the data collection or mathematical aspects of the task, but they get hung up on the idea of randomness. They claim that who ends up in the sample is random, so the chances of getting a "significant" or "non-significant" result are arbitrary and have nothing to do with the actual proportion of voters who intend to vote for the candidate. Explain to your friend how a hypothesis test works from a statistical standpoint, and how we know that the significance of the test does indeed depend on the true proportion of voters planning on voting for the candidate.
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