A government committee is considering the economic benefits of a program of preventative flu vaccinations. If vaccinations are not introduced then the estimated cost to the government if flu strikes in the next year is U$7m with probability 0.1, U$10m with probability 0.3 and U$15m with probability 0.6. It is estimated that such a program will cost U$7m and that the probability of flu striking in the next year is 0.75.

One alternative open to the committee is to institute an "early-warning" monitoring scheme (costing U$3m) which will enable it to detect an outbreak of flu early and hence institute a rush vaccination program (costing U$10m because of the need to vaccinate quickly before the outbreak spreads).

Use the decision tree method & EMV.

What recommendations should the committee make to the government if their objective is to maximize expected monetary value (EMV)?

The committee has also been informed that there are alternatives to using EMV. What are these alternatives, and would they be appropriate in this case?