A group conducted a poll of 2026 likely voters just prior to an election. The results of the survey indicated that candidate A would receive 49% of the popular vote and candidate B would receive 44% of the popular vote. The margin of error was reported to be 5%. The group reported that the race was too close to call. Use the concept of a confidence interval to explain what this means.

Question content area bottom

Part 1

What does it mean to say the race was too close to call?

A.

Since the estimated proportions depend on the level of confidence, the candidate predicted to receive the greater percentage of the popular vote changes for different levels of confidence, so the poll cannot predict the winner.

B.

Since the difference between the percentages of the popular vote for the candidates is less than the

7% of voters that are undecided, the poll cannot predict the winner.

C.

Since the poll results do not show that one of the candidates has more than 50% of the popular vote, the poll cannot predict the winner.

D.

The margin of error suggests candidate A may receive between 44% and 54% of the popular vote and candidate B may receive between 39% and 49%of the popular vote. Because the poll estimates overlap when accounting for margin of error, the poll cannot predict the winner.