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A group of researchers are studying whether monozygotic twins possess extra-sensory perception (ESP). They commenced by designing the following experiment: The researchers chose the value
A group of researchers are studying whether monozygotic twins possess extra-sensory perception (ESP). They commenced by designing the following experiment:
The researchers chose the value of an integer d. They selected a set of twins and asked each of the twins to think of an integer between 1 and d, and to write that number down on a sheet of paper. The researchers then compared the numbers from the twins to see if they were the same.
- (a)Suppose there is no ESP at all between the twins. What is the probability that the twins would choose the same number?
- (b)Again assuming no ESP, how large does d have to be so that the probability that the twins choose the same number is 1 in 1000 (i.e., 0.001) or less?
- (c)The researchers then recruited 500 sets of twins, and performed the same experiment on each set, using the value of d from part (b). Of the 500 sets oftwins, one set of twins wrote down the same number. This set of twins were then announced in a media release that they had demonstrated ESP. Is the claim of ESP justified?
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