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a) In a sequence of consecutive years 1, 2, . . ., T an annual number of bankruptcies are recorded by the Central Bank. The
a) In a sequence of consecutive years 1, 2, . . ., T an annual number of bankruptcies are recorded by the Central Bank. The random counts Ni, i = 1, 2, ..., T of bankruptcies in a given year are modeled using a Poisson()) distribution and can be assumed independent from year to year. The Central Bank has collected data for the past six years and recorded the following counts: 3, 1, 4, 5, 2, 3. The prior on A is a Gamma(2, -). Determine the posterior distribution h () |NV). Note: You may use that for a known a > 0 and B > 0, the Gamma(a, B) density is given by: f (x; a, B) =- r(a) Ba ' r >0, where r(a) = is the gamma function. Also, if X is distributed Gamma(a, B) then E(X) = ab and Var (X ) = ap2. O Gamma ( 10, 20O Gamma ( 10, 20 O Gamma 10 * , 20 O Gamma ( 20, 10 O Gamma ( 20, 10
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