(a) In the past 5 years, the monthly demand for heating oil (in litres) at a supermarket is as below:

(i) Using Microsoft Excel, plot the demand data. What did you notice about the demand pattern? (4 marks)

(ii) Forecast the monthly demand for heating oil for the year 2021. You should use the most appropriate forecasting method. Submit the Excel Spreadsheet as a separate file. (12 marks)

(iii) Examine the demand forecasting method by evaluating the forecast errors. Use any two (2) measures of error. Show the performance of the forecasting with the help of a plot. (12 marks)

(b) You have played MonsoonSIM Inventory Game as a group and tried to maximise the profit of your company by selling three types of juices at various locations. Describe, in brief, your inventory strategy for the game. What was the difference in strategy in round 1 and round 2? You should refer to the inventory concepts and models learnt in this course.

In a hindsight, what would you have done to improve your performance? State whether any assumptions were needed to decide your strategy or any information/data that were not available in the game. You may use any statistics from the game for your analysis. (20 marks)

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