A Japanese company named Kumo Bento ("Kumo" meaning cloud in Japanese) specializes in producing and selling food for air travel. The company is well-known for its clean and flavorful in-flight meals. The company has recently noticed a surge in sales of vegetarian meals.

Luis Harris, the manager of the Michigan branch, has decided to build a forecasting model for the sales of vegetarian meals. Table 1 below shows sales of vegetarian meals in the last twelve weeks.

Week #	Sales (in units)
1	31
2	46
3	72
4	92
5	120
6	152
7	181
8	216
9	240
10	282
11	313
12	350

Use a Simple Linear Regression model to calculate the forecasted sales of vegetarian meals in week 13.

Round your answer to the nearest integer.

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Question 2

 

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The regression model from Q1...

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       Select an option            

captures both level and trend.            

will always be more accurate with more independent variables.            

gives more weight to recent data.      

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Question 3

 

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Kumo Bento's seafood meal is another popular option. While reviewing the sales data for seafood meals to build a forecasting model, Luis Harris remembered that some of his friends avoid seafood during summer due to concerns about high temperatures affecting its freshness. Therefore, he decided to investigate whether sales of seafood meals followed a seasonal pattern. His data analysis revealed the following seasonality factors:

Table 2. Seasonality factors for sales of seafood meals

Time Period	Seasons	Seasonality Factors
1	Spring	0.96
2	Summer	0.78
3	Fall	1.25
4	Winter	1.01

With this information on seasonality, Luis Harris decided to use the Holt-Winter method to forecast sales of seafood meals. The level (â) and trend (b̂) values estimated at the end of last winter are: â₄ = 339, b̂₄ = 1.06. The forecasting parameters should be set at alpha = 0.12, beta = 0.03, gamma = 0.05.

Hint: Do not consider normalization of the seasonality factors for this question.

What is the forecast for sales of seafood meals for the upcoming spring (x̂_{4, 5})?

Round your answer to the nearest integer.

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What is the forecast for sales of seafood meals for the upcoming fall (x̂_{4, 7})?

Round your answer to the nearest integer.

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Question 4

 

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The Holt-Winter method from Q3...

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       Select an option            is often used for causal analysis.            considers level, trend and seasonality.            can be easily initialized with one season worth of data.      unanswered