A local caf, the Cool Caf, keeps record of its demand for blueberry muffins to help with the demand forecasting. The following table provides demand figures and forecasts for a six-week period. The demand column shows the actual demand that was experienced for the period. The exponentially smoothed forecast is the calculated forecast for each week using the exponential smoothing method and an alpha factor (a) of 0.25. 1 2 3 4 56 Week Actual Demand 280 248 277 263 269 209 Forecast (exponential smoothing with a= 0.25) 262 267 262 266 265 266 (B1). Calculate the exponentially smoothed forecast of the blueberry muffins demand for Week 7 using an alpha factor (a) of 0.25. (4 marks) (B2). Calculate a three-week simple moving average forecast of the blueberry muffins demand for Week 7. (3 marks) (B3). Calculate a four-week weighted average forecast of the blueberry muffins demand for Week 7 using the weights: 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1. (3 marks) (B4). The manager of the Cool Caf found the forecasts are very stable. For example, the forecasts are between 262 and 267, while the actual demand varies from 280 to 209. To make the forecasts more responsive to the changes in actual demand, the manager plans to use a smaller value of alpha factor (say, a-0.15) in forecasting. Would you agree with the manager? Why or why not? (5 marks) (B5). The manager of the Cool Caf wasn't able to explain what made this forecasting "exponential," so he decided to switch to simple moving average forecasting. How many weeks should he include in his forecast, in order to be consistent with his old exponential smoothing model? (5 marks) (B6). The demand experienced by the caf can show different patterns. Describe one possible cause for seasonal demand patterns, and one possible cause for cyclical demand patterns, that may have influenced the actual demand for the caf. (5 marks)