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A macroeconomist wants to construct forecasts for the following macroeconomic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, government purchases, exports, imports, shortterm interest rates, long term interest rates,
A macroeconomist wants to construct forecasts for the following macroeconomic variables: GDP, consumption, investment, government purchases, exports, imports, shortterm interest rates, long term interest rates, and the rate of price inflation. He has quarterly time series for each of these variables from 1970 to 2010. Should he estimate a VAR for these variables and use this for forecasting? Why or why not? 6:} A. No, a VAR should not be used since with 37 regression coefcients to estimate using 164 quarterly observations, the estimated coefficients are likely to be imprecise, leading to inaccurate forecasts. B. Yes, he should estimate a VAR and use it for forecasting because the VAR will generate consistent estimates. ;, C. No, a VAR can not be used for more than two variables. D. Yes, with only 9 variables to estimate using 164 observations, a VAR provides the best method for forecasting
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