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A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state
A major source of revenue in Texas is a state sales tax on certain types of goods and services. Data are compiled and the state controller uses them to project future revenues for the state budget. One particular category of goods is classified as Rental Trade. Four years of quarterly data (in $millions) for one particular area of southeast Texas follow:
Quarter | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 |
Quarter 1 | 218 | 225 | 234 | 250 |
Quarter 2 | 247 | 254 | 265 | 283 |
Quarter 3 | 243 | 255 | 264 | 289 |
Quarter 4 | 292 | 299 | 327 | 356 |
- Compute seasonal indices for each quarter based on CMA.
- Deseasonalize the data. i.e. remove the seasonality and show data with only the trend component.
- Find the trend line equation using the regression analysis in Excel for the data in 2)
- Forecast the sales for each quarter of year 5 using the trend line equation obtained from 3) (note: this is not the final forecast. The final forecast will be done in 5).
- Apply the seasonal indices to the forecasts found in part 4) to obtain the final forecasts for each quarter of year 5.
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