A manufacturing firm has set up a project for developing a new machine for one of its production lines. The most likely estimated cost of the project itself is $1,000,000, but the most optimistic estimate is $900,000 while the pessimists predict a project cost of $1,200,000. The real problem is that even if the project costs are within those limits, if the project itself plus its implementation costs exceed $1,425,000, the project will not meet the firms NPV hurdle. There are four cost categories involved in adding the prospective new machine to the production line: 1. engineering labor cost: The engineering labor requirement has been estimated to be 600 hours, plus or minus 15 percent at a cost of $80 per hour. 2. non-engineering labor cost: The non-engineering labor requirement is estimated to be 1500 hours; but could be as low as 1200 hours or as high as 2200 hours at a cost of $35 per hour. 3. assorted material cost: Assorted material may run as high as $155,000 or as low as $100,000; but is most likely to be about $135,000. 4. production line downtime cost: The best guess of time lost on the production line is 110 hours, possibly as low as 105 hours and as high as 120 hours. The line contributes about $500 per hour to the firms profit and overhead. What is the probability that the new machine project will meet the firms NPV hurdle? Notes: - Consider a triangular distribution for: project cost, non-engineering labor hours, material cost, and downtime hours. - Consider a uniform distribution for the engineering labor hours. - Do the simulation (in Excel) for 1000, 5000, and 10000 trials and find the required probability with each.