Question
A manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second planteither small or largeat a nearby location. The demand is likely to
A manufacturing plant has reached full capacity. The company must build a second planteither small or largeat a nearby location. The demand is likely to be high or low. The probability of low demand is 0.3. If demand is low, the large plant has a present value of $5 million and the small plant, a present value of $8 million. If demand is high, the large plant pays off with a present value of $18 million, and the small plant with a present value of only $10 million. However, the small plant can be expanded later if demand proves to be high for a present value of $14 million.
- Draw a decision tree for this problem.
- What should management do to achieve the highest expected payoff?
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