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A new production process at Fabufirst, Inc. has two in-line stages. The probability of defective components being produced in stage 1 is 15 percent and

A new production process at Fabufirst, Inc. has two in-line stages. The probability of defective components being produced in stage 1 is 15 percent and 10 percent in stage 2. Assembled units that have defective components only from stage 1 OR only from stage 2 are considered repairable. However, items that have defective components from both stage 1 and stage 2 (completely defectiveā€¯) must be scrapped.

a.) Use a probability tree diagram and calculate the probabilities that the Fabufirst assembled units are:

(i) Defective in stage 1 and defective in stage 2 (are completely defective);

(ii) Defective in stage 1 and are not defective in stage 2 (called Repairable I);

(iii) Not defective in stage 1 but are defective in stage 2 (called Repairable II); and

(iv) Not defective in stage 1 and are not defective in stage 2 (completely good).

(v) What is the probability of producing repairable assembled units?

b.) Explain the results in terms of the multiplication and the addition rules for probability.

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a i The probability of producing completely defective assembled units is the probability of both stages 1 and 2 being defective which can be calculated using the multiplication rule The probability of stage 1 being defective is 015 and the probability of stage 2 being defective is 010 Therefore the probability of both stages being defective is 015 x 010 0015 ii The probability of producing Repairable I units defective in stage 1 but not in stage 2 is the probability of stage 1 being defective and stage 2 being not defective which can be calculated using the multiplication rule The probability of stage 1 being defective is 015 and the probability of stage 2 being not defective is 1 010 090 Therefore the probability of producing Repairable I units is 015 x 090 0135 iii The probability of producing Repairable II units not defective in stage 1 but defective in stage 2 is the probability of stage 1 being not defective and stage 2 being defective which can be calculated using the multiplication rule The probability of stage 1 being not defective is 1 015 085 and the probability of stage 2 being defective is 010 Therefore the probability of producing Repairable II units is 085 x 010 0085 iv The probability of producing completely good assembled units is the probability of both stages 1 and 2 being not defective which can be calculated using the multiplication rule The probability of stage 1 being not defective is 1 015 085 and the probability of stage 2 being not defective is 1 010 090 Therefore the probability of producing completely good assembled units is 085 x 090 0765 v The probability of producing repairable assembled units is the sum of the probabilities of producing Repairable I units and Repairable II units which can be calculated using the addition rule The probability of producing Repairable I units is 0135 and the probability of producing Repairable II units is 0085 Therefore the probability of producing repairable assembled units is 0135 0085 022 b The results of the probability tree diagram can be explained in terms of the multiplication and the addition rules for probability The multiplication rule was used to calculate ... blur-text-image

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