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A pharmaceutical company is developing a new drug and needs to determine whether to proceed with clinical trials. To assess the risks and potential outcomes,
A pharmaceutical company is developing a new drug and needs to determine whether to proceed with clinical trials. To assess the risks and potential outcomes, the company decides to utilize decision tree analysis in risk management. The decision tree has two possible pathways: obtaining regulatory approval (probability 0.7) or not obtaining regulatory approval (probability 0.3). If the drug receives regulatory approval, the company expects to generate $50 million in revenue. However, if the drug does not receive approval, the company incurs a loss of $10 million due to the development expenses. Additionally, there is a 15% chance of the drug receiving conditional approval, resulting in a revenue of $20 million. Calculate the expected value of the project
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