Question
A pharmaceutical company is developing a new drug that has the potential to generate significant profits. However, there is a risk that the drug may
A pharmaceutical company is developing a new drug that has the potential to generate significant profits. However, there is a risk that the drug may not be approved by regulatory authorities, which would result in a loss of $5,000,000 in research and development (R&D) costs. The probability of approval is estimated to be 70%. If the drug is approved, the company expects to earn $10,000,000 in profits. However, if the drug is not approved, the company could still earn $1,000,000 in profits by repurposing the drug for a different use. The probability of successful repurposing is estimated to be 50%.
Calculate the expected value and standard deviation of the profit for the drug development project, and provide a recommendation to the company based on your calculations.
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