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A preliminary analysis of a project indicates the following: NPV of Project Scenario Year CF mil. Unconditional Probability PVF CF*Prob.*PVF Initial 0 -50 100% 1
A preliminary analysis of a project indicates the following:
NPV of Project | |||||
Scenario | Year | CF mil. | Unconditional Probability | PVF | CF*Prob.*PVF |
Initial | 0 | -50 | 100% | 1 | -50.000 |
H | 1 | 25 | 70% | 0.90909 | 15.909 |
L | 1 | 10 | 30% | 0.90909 | 2.727 |
HH | 2 | 85 | 49% | 0.82645 | 34.421 |
HL | 2 | 70 | 21% | 0.82645 | 12.149 |
LH | 2 | 45 | 12% | 0.82645 | 4.463 |
LL | 2 | 20 | 18% | 0.82645 | 2.975 |
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| NPV | 22.645 |
A financial analyst uncovers additional information not incorporated in the calculations above:
- In year 1, if scenario equals L, the firm can abandon operations and realize a liquidation value of $30 million from its assets.
Using the DTA approach, answer the following two questions:
- What is the NPV of the project?
- What is the NPV of the option to abandon?
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