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A preliminary analysis of a project indicates the following: NPV of Project Scenario Year CF mil. Unconditional Probability PVF CF*Prob.*PVF Initial 0 -50 100% 1

A preliminary analysis of a project indicates the following:

NPV of Project

Scenario

Year

CF mil.

Unconditional

Probability

PVF

CF*Prob.*PVF

Initial

0

-50

100%

1

-50.000

H

1

25

70%

0.90909

15.909

L

1

10

30%

0.90909

2.727

HH

2

85

49%

0.82645

34.421

HL

2

70

21%

0.82645

12.149

LH

2

45

12%

0.82645

4.463

LL

2

20

18%

0.82645

2.975

NPV

22.645

A financial analyst uncovers additional information not incorporated in the calculations above:

  • In year 1, if scenario equals L, the firm can abandon operations and realize a liquidation value of $30 million from its assets.

Using the DTA approach, answer the following two questions:

  1. What is the NPV of the project?

  1. What is the NPV of the option to abandon?

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