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A price-linked derivative security pays $300 if the oil price over the next year increases by more than 5%, an event that can happen with

A price-linked derivative security pays $300 if the oil price over the next year increases by more than 5%, an event that can happen with a 60% probability. Otherwise, it pays $50. If the expected return on the security is 15%, how much does the security cost?

$180

$168

$191

$174

$222

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