Question
A project has two phases each of one year duration. You pay 15 dollars today. The first phase has a 60% chance of success. If
A project has two phases each of one year duration. You pay 15 dollars today. The first phase has a 60% chance of success. If successful, the firm can pay 30 dollars for the second phase. The second phase has a 20% chance of being successful. In this case, the firm can pay 100 dollars. Viewed from date 0, the expected revenue in year 2 of a successful project is estimated to be 500 dollars. The volatility of the logarithmic returns on the revenues is sigma = 0.693147. The riskless rate is zero. The risk of the project is fully diversifiable.
Establish the lattice of present values for a successful project.
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