A project manager estimates that there is 0.3 probability that the time to complete a project will exceed the deadline. Subsequently he receives a forecast from a project planning tool. This suggests that the deadline will be exceeded. In the past the tool has given this forecast on 90% of occasions when the deadline has been exceeded and on 20% of occasions when it has not. The posterior probability of the deadline being exceeded is:

a. 0.30

b. 0.66

c. 0.27

d. 0.41