Question
A promising college basketball talent has to decide whether or not to enter this year's NBA draft. If he enters, he expects that there is
A promising college basketball talent has to decide whether or not to enter this year's NBA draft. If he enters, he expects that there is a 50% chance that he is a first round pick and a 50% chance that he is picked in a later round. As a first round pick, he would secure a 10 million dollar contract, if he is picked in a later round, his contract would only be worth $1,000,000.
If he does not enter the draft this year and continues to play in college, his chance of being a first round pick next year will increase to 60% (the contracts for first and later round picks are the same as in the previous year, $10 million and $1,000,000 respectively). However, there is a chance that he suffers a career ending injury next season, in which case he could make $50,000 as a conch in Europe.
Calculate the injury probability p (rounded to 2 decimals) that makes the decision maker indifferent between entering now and waiting until next year, that is for what probability are the EMV of both alternatives equal?
a. 0.14
b. 0.24
c. 0.28
d. 0.18
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