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A rare genetic disease is discovered. Although only one in a million people carry it, you consider getting screened. You are told that the genetic
A rare genetic disease is discovered. Although only one in a million people carry it, you consider getting screened. You are told that the genetic test is extremely good; it is 100% sensitive (it is always correct if you have the disease) and 99.99% specific (it gives a false positive result only 0.01% of the time). Having recently learned Bayes' theorem, what is the probability of being healthy given a positive test?
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