A recession is defined as a period of reduced output (or GDP) and a significant increase in the unemployment rate. The current economic landscape only meets one of the two requirements of a recession. According to public reports regarding the output of the United States (or GDP) both quarter 1 and quarter 2 of 2022 experienced a negative growth. This equates to two consecutive quarters of negative growth or a technical recession.

The other requirement of a recession is a significant increase in the unemployment rate. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics the national unemployment rate before COVID was 3.4%, which is within the full employment range. During COVID the unemployment rate rose to 14.7%. The current unemployment rate is back to pre-COVID levels with a rate of 3.5%.

Therefore, the economic landscape meets the requirements of a technical recession, but not the full definition of recession.

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