A regional limousine service examined their routes for the past 15 weeks. The data provides a record of the total miles drive in each week.

Week	Miles
1	21,000
2	25,000
3	24,000
4	26,000
5	22,000
6	25,000
7	24,000
8	24,000
9	22,000
10	24,000
11	23,000
12	24,000
13	23,000
14	22,000
15	24,000

a) Compute the forecasts using the four-period moving average. What is the MAPE?

b) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using the four-period moving average.

c) Compute the forecasts using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.15 and a forecast for Week 1 of 20,000. What is the MAD?

d) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.15 and a forecast for Week 1 of 20000.

e) Compute the forecasts using linear regression using Excel’s slope and intercept function. What is the MAPE?

f) Compute the forecast for Week 16 using linear regression.

g) Create a tracking signal plot for the four-period moving average data. Does the chart indicate that this method accurately predicts the data (does the data fall within ± 4 MAD)?

h) Comparing one of the error measurements (MAD, MSE, or MAPE) – which is the best forecasting method? Which is the worst forecasting method?