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A researcher says that there is a 80% chance a polygraph test (lie detector test) will catch a person who is, in fact, lying.
A researcher says that there is a 80% chance a polygraph test (lie detector test) will catch a person who is, in fact, lying. Furthermore, there is approximately a 7% chance that the polygraph will falsely accuse someone of lying. (a) If the polygraph indicated that 36% of the questions were answered with lies, what would you estimate for the actual percentage of lies in the answers? Hint: Let B = event detector indicates a lie. We are given P(B) = 0.36. Let A = event person is lying, so AC = event person is not lying. Then P(B) = P(A and B) + P(A and B) P(B) = P(A)P(B | A) + P(A)P(B | A) Replacing P(A) by 1 - P(A) gives. P(B) = P(A) P(B | A) + [1 - P(A)] P(B | AC) Substitute known values for P(B), P(B | A), and P(B | 4) into the last equation and solve for P(A). (Round your answer to two decimal places.) P(A) = 0.397 (b) If the polygraph indicated that 64% of the questions were answered with lies, what would you estimate for the actual percentage of lies? (Round your answer to one decimal place.)
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