Question
A researcher was searching for a fibromyalgia biomarker. He measured daily cytokine levels (50 cytokines total) and daily pain level for 3 fibromyalgia patients for
A researcher was searching for a fibromyalgia biomarker. He measured daily cytokine levels (50 cytokines total) and daily pain level for 3 fibromyalgia patients for 25 consecutive days. For each patient, he calculated 50 correlation coefficientscorrelating daily cytokine levels with daily pain levels (n=25 days). He declared a correlation coefficient to be "statistically significant" if the p-value was <.01. He found one cytokine that was significantly correlated with pain in all three subjects. What's the probability that this is a chance (false positive) finding? In other words, assume that none of the cytokines are correlated with pain and calculate the probability that at least one cytokine had a significant correlation with pain in all three subjects.
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