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a) Seven randomly selected economists were asked on two occasions to predict what the growth rate of GDP would be for the year ending
a) Seven randomly selected economists were asked on two occasions to predict what the growth rate of GDP would be for the year ending in December 2015 in a particular country. Their predictions, made in June 2014 and December 2014 were as listed below: Economist A B C D E F G June 2014 prediction (%) 2.2 3.7 2.1 2.3 3.4 2.5 2.1 December 2014 prediction (%) 2.9 3.8 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.7 2.7 (i) Make a table below to show the increase in predictions between June 2014 and December 2014. [3 marks] [2 marks] (ii) State null and alternate hypothesis for a test to check whether economists become more optimistic on the future growth rate of GDP. (iii) Make a table below to show the absolute increase in predictions between June 2014 and December 2014 and the equivalent Rank as well. [6 marks] (iv) Use a Wilcoxon test to examine whether there is evidence at the 5% level that economists become more optimistic between June and December about the future growth rate. [4 marks]
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