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A statistical program is recommended. Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 72 69 63 2 49 41 51
A statistical program is recommended. Consider the following time series. Quarter Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 1 72 69 63 2 49 41 51 3 59 61 54 4 79 82 73 (a) Construct a time series plot. 90 90 90 90 80 a; 80 80 80 g 70 E 70 E 70 E 70 g 6 g 60 g 60 ; so 50 x. E 50 E 50 E 50 $ 40 1.. 1.. L4 40 40 g 40 E 30 E 30 E 30 E 30 ' 20 ' 20 20 p 20 10 10 10 10 0 0 O 1 0 123412341234 123412341234 123412341234 123412341234 Yea\" Yea\" Yea\" Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 O Year/Quarter O Year/Quarter (3 Year/Quarter (D O Year/Quarter (D J What type of pattern exists in the data? O The time series plot shows a trend pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern, but there is also a seasonal pattern in the data. 0 The time series plot shows a trend pattern with no seasonal pattern present. O The time series plot shows a horizontal pattern with no seasonal pattern present. (b) Use the following dummy variables to develop an estimated regression equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; x2 = 1 if quarter 2, 0 otherwise; x3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. *0 ll (c) Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year. quarter 1 forecast quarter 2 forecast quarter 3 forecast HHHH quarter 4 forecast
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